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This just in: The U.S. economy is slowing and the demand for labor is cooling. While we do not find either to be at all surprising, many analysts and many market participants are in full Captain Renault mode, shocked to learn that an economy that recently seemed so strong suddenly seems to be teetering toward…

Over the past several weeks, there has been considerable discussion of a “reacceleration” of U.S. economic growth in early 2023. While many have made note of this, few have been able to satisfactorily explain it, particularly given that it comes after the FOMC aggressively raised the Fed funds rate in 2022 and market interest rates…

It’s hard to know where you’re going if you’re not sure where you are. That is something we learned from experience in the dark days before the advent of GPS technology.

As far as 2023 outlooks go, that’s about as clear and concise, not to mention precise, as we can be. Consider it the triumph of experience over hope.

If we had to pick one dominant theme in discussions of the U.S. economy in 2022, that theme would be recession. Contractions in real GDP in each of the first two quarters of 2022 triggered intense debate as to whether or not the U.S. economy was already in recession.