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U.S. large-cap stocks (S&P 500) continued to melt up in February and turned out a 5.3% total return during the month, as earnings season provided an upside catalyst with mega-cap technology stocks tied to the artificial intelligence (AI) theme leading the way.

For those of us tasked with tracking, analyzing, and forecasting the economic data, a general rule is that you seldom actually know what you at first think you know.

Our 2024 outlook is a natural follow-up to our 2023 outlook, which, as some readers will recall, was “Lots of Stuff May or May not Happen in 2023.” At the risk of appearing immodest, our 2023 outlook wasn’t just correct, it was spot-on, dead-bang, on-the-money correct, as lots of stuff did indeed happen in 2023…

As we close in on year-end, there are concerns that the U.S. economy will slip into recession in the new year, and even though inflation remains well above the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2.0% target rate, the committee finds itself trying to push back against market expectations of aggressive Fed funds rate cuts.

On October 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their initial estimate of Q3 GDP, which showed real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9% during the quarter, with consumer spending, government spending, and a faster pace of nonfarm business inventory accumulation the main drivers of growth.