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As we close in on year-end, there are concerns that the U.S. economy will slip into recession in the new year, and even though inflation remains well above the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2.0% target rate, the committee finds itself trying to push back against market expectations of aggressive Fed funds rate cuts.

On October 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their initial estimate of Q3 GDP, which showed real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9% during the quarter, with consumer spending, government spending, and a faster pace of nonfarm business inventory accumulation the main drivers of growth.

What Goes Up Must Come Down … At Least Part of the Way

The U.S. economy is a) shifting into a faster rate of growth; b) gently easing into a soft landing; or c) on the road to recession

While it may be true that, as Neil deGrasse Tyson says, the universe is under no obligation to make sense to you, would it be too much to ask for the economic data to do so?