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he (not so) great debate over whether or not the U.S. economy is in recession rages on. No matter what media platform you choose to engage, it’s hard to avoid what has seemingly turned into a nonstop shouting match.

We’ve always considered providing context to be an important part of our job—perhaps the most important part. With a constant flow of economic data releases, we think it important to explain not only why the numbers in a given data release are what they are, but also how a given data release connects with other…

The FOMC raised the Fed funds rate target range by 75 basis points this week, a move largely thought to be off the table a week ago but put in play by the recent inflation data.

No, it actually isn’t—“it” being the start of the recession that many have deemed inevitable. As we noted last month, Q1 2022 GDP was destined for weakness, at least under GDP accounting conventions, with inventories and net exports teaming up to, well, do a number on real GDP growth.

With robust and broad-based job growth, an unemployment rate of 3.6%, ongoing expansion in the factory and services sectors, and record-high household net worth, it may seem as though there is little cause for concern over the U.S. economy.