Our Research

No, it actually isn’t—“it” being the start of the recession that many have deemed inevitable. As we noted last month, Q1 2022 GDP was destined for weakness, at least under GDP accounting conventions, with inventories and net exports teaming up to, well, do a number on real GDP growth.

With robust and broad-based job growth, an unemployment rate of 3.6%, ongoing expansion in the factory and services sectors, and record-high household net worth, it may seem as though there is little cause for concern over the U.S. economy.

The human cost of the situation in Ukraine is immeasurable and, for most of us, unfathomable. While by no means trying to diminish the human cost, it is nonetheless our task to try and process the economic and financial implications, the main ones we touch on here.