Our Research

“Things are not always as they seem; the first appearance deceives many.” OK, so maybe Phaedrus wasn’t ruminating on the nature of economic data, but it fits, nonetheless. Even in the most normal of times, the economic data can send often conflicting and confusing signals on the state of the economy.

he (not so) great debate over whether or not the U.S. economy is in recession rages on. No matter what media platform you choose to engage, it’s hard to avoid what has seemingly turned into a nonstop shouting match.

We’ve always considered providing context to be an important part of our job—perhaps the most important part. With a constant flow of economic data releases, we think it important to explain not only why the numbers in a given data release are what they are, but also how a given data release connects with other…

The FOMC raised the Fed funds rate target range by 75 basis points this week, a move largely thought to be off the table a week ago but put in play by the recent inflation data.

No, it actually isn’t—“it” being the start of the recession that many have deemed inevitable. As we noted last month, Q1 2022 GDP was destined for weakness, at least under GDP accounting conventions, with inventories and net exports teaming up to, well, do a number on real GDP growth.