Research

As far as 2023 outlooks go, that’s about as clear and concise, not to mention precise, as we can be. Consider it the triumph of experience over hope.

If we had to pick one dominant theme in discussions of the U.S. economy in 2022, that theme would be recession. Contractions in real GDP in each of the first two quarters of 2022 triggered intense debate as to whether or not the U.S. economy was already in recession.

Recall that when the BEA reported that real GDP had contracted in each of the first two quarters of 2022, our reaction was that underlying economic conditions were better than implied by the headline GDP numbers.

As we noted last month, even in the most normal of times, the economic data can send often conflicting and confusing signals on the state of the economy.

“Things are not always as they seem; the first appearance deceives many.” OK, so maybe Phaedrus wasn’t ruminating on the nature of economic data, but it fits, nonetheless. Even in the most normal of times, the economic data can send often conflicting and confusing signals on the state of the economy.

he (not so) great debate over whether or not the U.S. economy is in recession rages on. No matter what media platform you choose to engage, it’s hard to avoid what has seemingly turned into a nonstop shouting match.

We’ve always considered providing context to be an important part of our job—perhaps the most important part. With a constant flow of economic data releases, we think it important to explain not only why the numbers in a given data release are what they are, but also how a given data release connects with other releases and what it all might mean for the path of the economy.

The FOMC raised the Fed funds rate target range by 75 basis points this week, a move largely thought to be off the table a week ago but put in play by the recent inflation data.